1. Third quarter: exits rebound in value, not in volume — and fundraising, edging up, concentrates in far fewer funds
PitchBook’s Q3 2026 Global PE First Look (data as of September 30) offers the first snapshot of the quarter. Global exit value jumped to $481.6 billion, up 65% on the second quarter, while the number of exits rose only 9.3% (1,089). If value rises much faster than volume, the average exit has grown: about $442 million per exit in Q3, against $293 million in Q2 (+51%, PE Research calculation from PitchBook data). The rebound therefore rests on a few very large transactions, not on a broad recovery. The regional split shows where they are: Asia-Pacific exit value went from $43.2 billion to $219.8 billion (46% of the global total) while its number of exits only rose from 143 to 177. On its own, the region explains 93% of the global increase ($176.6 billion out of $189.7 billion); excluding Asia-Pacific, exit value rose just 5%. In the US, exit value rose 51% ($165.1 billion, 405 exits); in Europe it fell 26% (€78.1 billion versus €105.5 billion). On the investment side, global deal value rose 7.8% ($499.2 billion) on a near-flat deal count (5,718, +1.9%); the US climbed 20% ($230.4 billion), Europe fell 10% (€151.8 billion). A caveat on the quarterly figures: how can PitchBook publish as early as September 30? Its methodology note points to three choices. First, deals are dated at announcement rather than at closing: a buyout signed in September counts in Q3 even if it completes next year. Second, the value (equity and debt) of deals with undisclosed amounts is extrapolated with a regression model. Third, to account for deals not yet known at quarter-end, PitchBook raises the recorded figures by a percentage equal to the average gap, over the past two years, between what it had recorded at the end of each quarter and what it eventually found a year later. It applies this average uplift, labelled “estimated” deals, to the quarter just ended. In Q3, this estimated share accounts for 1,641 of the 5,718 deals (29%) and $82.1 billion of value (16%), and 377 of the 1,089 exits (35%) for $30.7 billion. By contrast, the France Invest × Grant Thornton study relies on deal-by-deal reporting by its members (353 respondents out of 387 for 2025), audited by Grant Thornton, and uses the closing date, i.e. actual cash movement: hence publication in March 2026 for the year 2025.
Fundraising, for its part, is concentrating. Over the first nine months, $368.1 billion was raised worldwide by 523 funds, against $476.0 billion and 1,004 funds for the whole of 2025: at the current pace, capital raised would grow about 3% for the year, but with nearly a third fewer funds. According to law firm Foley & Lardner (October 2), fund count is pacing down 30.5% year on year and, at the current pace, the US ($222 billion, 348 funds) would raise less than $300 billion in 2026 for the first time since 2020. Europe raised €65.9 billion in the first nine months of 2026, 78% of its full-year 2025 total (€84.8 billion), but with 99 funds against 174; only Asia-Pacific ($58.5 billion) has already beaten last year’s total. LSEG data published by Reuters on October 1 corroborate the trend from another angle: global M&A fell 41% in Q3 ($993 billion), with 10 deals above $10 billion versus 26 in Q2; year to date, private equity-backed dealmaking is still the strongest by value since records began in 1980, but Q3 marked a slowdown year on year. The backdrop: the US 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.34% on October 1, its highest since 2002, after the biggest quarterly rise this century. Separate PitchBook research, reported by Benzinga / Yahoo Finance on October 3, measures the backlog: a third of 2017-vintage US buyouts are still unsold, and at the first-quarter pace it would take more than 10.8 years to clear the 13,325 companies held — a calculation PitchBook itself calls a simplified extrapolation.
Sources: PitchBook (Q3 2026 Global PE First Look, preview shared by Gilles Mougenot; report page; methodology), France Invest × Grant Thornton (2025 activity study, methodology pp. 60-63), Foley & Lardner, Reuters via Investing.com (LSEG data), Benzinga / Yahoo Finance.
📖 Going further: “25. Private Equity 2026: market recovery or regime change?” (in French)
2. Liquidity on credit: the wealthy borrow against their fund stakes, and the SEC restates the valuation rules
With distributions scarce, fund investors are looking for liquidity elsewhere. The Financial Times (September 28) describes wealthy individuals and their family offices moving into net asset value (NAV) lending, previously the preserve of institutions: rather than selling stakes on the secondary market, usually at a discount, they borrow against them. According to Fund Finance Partners, NAV loans outstanding — mostly extended to funds themselves and to institutional investors, with use by individuals still in its early stages according to Ares — total around $150 billion: a stock, not an annual volume. Industry projections for the end of the decade range from $50 billion to more than $100 billion of new loans a year. According to UBS, family offices allocated 20% of their assets to private equity and private debt in 2025, up from 16% in 2019. Goldman Sachs lends 25% to 35% of asset value, over two to three years, against 40% to 60% for art; Ben Williams, head of EMEA and Asia private banking lending and deposits, sums up the mindset: “it’s inefficient to have an asset that you can’t sweat.” AllianceBernstein confirms the order of magnitude ($150 billion in 2025, FFP index) and describes loan-to-value ratios of 5% to 25% for portfolio facilities.
The flip side is well known: a NAV loan is only as good as the NAV. On September 29, according to Private Equity Wire citing Bloomberg, the SEC’s Office of the Chief Accountant and Division of Investment Management issued a joint statement reminding managers and auditors of their fair-value and disclosure obligations on private assets. No new rule, but a pointed reminder: auditors must challenge management’s assumptions, the risk of bias being high; private credit is singled out (registered-fund assets up from $170 billion in December 2020 to $270 billion in December 2025), with particular attention to payment-in-kind interest. In France, distributors’ appetite is undiminished: according to an iCapital survey of wealth advisers reported by CFNEWS on October 2, 34% want to increase their clients’ allocation to real assets — real estate, infrastructure, natural resources — with the outlet headlining that advisers “favour evergreen private equity”.
Sources: Financial Times (article shared by Gilles Mougenot), AllianceBernstein, Wikipedia, “NAV lending” (summary of market projections, sources Private Debt Investor and Bloomberg Law), Private Equity Wire (SEC), CFNEWS.
📖 Going further: “12. Private Equity (really) opens up to individual investors” (in French)
3. United States: private equity enters the midterm campaign
On September 27 — the day our previous edition went live, hence this slight catch-up — the Financial Times published an analysis of campaign language in competitive races: attacks on private equity and “corporate landlords” have risen sharply in 2026, with housing costs replacing Wall Street and the banks as the target. More than two dozen congressional candidates have pledged to restrict fund purchases, more than double any previous cycle; in Iowa, both the Republican nominee and her Democratic opponent denounce institutional investors outbidding first-time buyers. The federal framework has already moved: a presidential executive order in January, then the ROAD to Housing Act in July, which bars investors owning more than 350 single-family homes from buying more — without reaching the specialist manufactured-home park owners residents complain about most. Will Dunham, CEO of the American Investment Council, defends an industry he describes as “well known but not well understood.”
Think tank CEPR (October 2 “Buyouts” newsletter) extends the indictment: after the Stop Wall Street Looting Act, the Stop Corporate Takeovers of Physicians Act targets healthcare, Brown University has launched a Private Equity State Tracker, and protest is spreading on social media over the quality of fund-owned fast food. CEPR is an advocacy voice; the trend it describes is now measured by the FT.
Sources: Financial Times (article shared by Gilles Mougenot), CEPR.
📖 Going further: “8. US Private Equity Under Fire”
4. Europe and France: a contested mid-market, funds betting on sustainability — and SFDR in brief
In the European mid-market, Real Deals (October 1) finds the median European buyout value up 8% to €65 million, as sponsors crowd into the €50–150 million bracket and compete for in-demand assets. In this crowded mid-market, a fundraise against the tide: Argos, the independent European manager (more than €2.5 billion in assets, six offices in Amsterdam, Brussels, Frankfurt, Luxembourg, Milan and Paris), closed its Mid-Market IX fund, classified Article 8 under SFDR, at €736 million, 23% above its €600 million target and 64% above the €450 million of its predecessor (Argos release; AltAssets). About 90% of institutional investors in the previous vintage re-upped, and 44% of the capital comes from new LPs; 19% of commitments came from North America and 8% from Asia-Pacific, and more than €80 million from investors who first joined through the Argos Climate Action fund, classified Article 9 and itself oversubscribed in 2024. The fund targets European companies with €10 million to €30 million of EBITDA (enterprise values of €50 million to €250 million), with equity tickets of €30 million to €100 million, and made its first investment in July, the acquisition of STAR7, previously listed in Milan. The case illustrates section 1: capital is not disappearing, it is concentrating on managers with a clear strategy and a long track record. Disclosure: Gilles Mougenot is the founder of Argos and a Senior Advisor to Argos Fund.
In France, the week is about reshaping. Swen Capital Partners closed its multi-manager fund Swen PE Select Europa 7 at €236 million, two years after a first close at €83 million, and it is the first fund in its multi-manager range classified as “Article 9” under the EU’s SFDR (see below) (CFNEWS, October 1). Mirova, an affiliate of Natixis Investment Managers, completed the transfer of its impact vehicles to Jolt Capital — all classified Article 9 under SFDR, in line with Mirova’s stated policy — including Mirova Environment Acceleration Capital (launched in 2021, €211 million at its 2024 final close, Greenfin label) (Natixis IM) (CFNEWS, October 2).
SFDR in brief, private equity side. Since 2021, the EU’s SFDR regulation has required every fund to state whether it has a sustainability ambition. Designed as a disclosure rule, it has in practice become a label that LPs check before committing. Three boxes:
- Article 6 — no promise. The fund makes no sustainability claim. Long the private equity managers’ default to avoid the reporting burden, it is receding: about 43% of private equity funds onboarded by administrator Langham Hall in Luxembourg and the UK in 2022, 40% in 2024.
- Article 8 — “light green.” The fund “promotes” environmental or social characteristics, with no mandatory quantified target. It has become the industry’s pragmatic standard: 25% of new private equity funds in 2022, 40% in 2024 (Langham Hall). At stake: meeting LP expectations without the burden of Article 9.
- Article 9 — “dark green.” Sustainable investment is the fund’s very objective. It accounts for 20% of new private equity funds in 2024 at Langham Hall (29% in 2022). At stake: a high burden of proof, reserved for well-equipped managers, with mostly institutional and mission-driven clients. Swen here, or Argos’s Climate Action fund, are among them.
The reform in one paragraph. Proposed by Brussels on November 20, 2025, “SFDR 2.0” would replace these boxes with three categories with precise criteria — “Sustainable”, “ESG Basics” and a new “Transition” category, which fits private equity’s business well: taking still-imperfect companies towards a measurable goal — each requiring at least 70% of the portfolio to meet the criteria.
Sources for the figures: Langham Hall (funds administered in Luxembourg and the UK, August 2025). There is no recent, comprehensive public statistic on the SFDR classification of European or French private equity funds.
Sources: Real Deals, Argos (release), AltAssets (Argos), CFNEWS (Argos), CFNEWS (Swen), CFNEWS (Mirova), Natixis IM (Mirova), Langham Hall (SFDR), Paul Hastings (SFDR 2.0). CFNEWS articles are paywalled: only public summaries were used.
📖 Going further: “22. The Consolidation of Private Equity Players: Darwinian Reality or Fashionable Narrative?”
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