1. K-shaped European venture capital: Antler’s founder report, between rocketships and a Series A bottleneck
Antler, the early-stage venture firm founded in Singapore in 2017 (about $1 billion in assets under management in 2024, more than 2,000 startups backed, 27 cities), has published its European Founder Report 2026 (research conducted in August across 209 European unicorns, 551 unicorn founders, 4,129 Series A founders and 81,055 funding rounds since 2000). The finding fits in one sentence from the author, Christoph Klink: “There has never been a better time to be a founder in Europe. There has never been a harder time to be a founder in Europe.” On one side, 33 unicorns founded since 2020 reached the billion mark in two years on average (14 counted in 2025), with the largest seed rounds ever raised in Europe—Ineffable Intelligence, $1.1 billion in April 2026; Advanced Machine Intelligence, $1.03 billion in March—and 43% of these companies based in London. On the other, the share of seed-funded companies raising a Series A within three years, 23.3% on average over 2008-2019, fell to 20% for the 2021 cohort, 13% for 2022 and 9% for 2023; since the 2021 peak, the number of new founders has grown 54% while seed rounds fell 41% and Series A rounds 45%. The number of institutional investors actively deploying (three or more deals a year) has dropped 42% at early stage and 45% at Series A since 2022. Antler prices the repair: $1.89 billion to bring the 2022 cohort back to the historical Series A conversion rate, or 172 additional Series A rounds; another $378 million to close the upstream pre-seed-to-seed gap, or 182 additional seed rounds; and a further $466 million for the 42 Series A rounds those 182 companies would in turn produce—$2.74 billion in all to repair the whole funnel, 10% of what the 33 “rocketships” have raised in total. PitchBook’s first-half 2026 data tell the same concentration story from the other end: €44 billion invested in Europe, AI at 60.3% of deal value (37.9% in 2025), and rounds above €100 million accounting for more than half of Q2 value.
Sources: Antler (European Founder Report 2026), PitchBook (European VC).
📖 Going further: “30. VC vs. Buyout: The American Match in Five Rounds”
2. A market of contrasts
Morgan Stanley Capital Partners, the middle-market private equity arm of Morgan Stanley Investment Management, has published a September note, “A New Era for Middle Market Private Equity,” whose PitchBook data (US only) describe a market that no longer forgives. The note does not define the middle market; for its own account, Morgan Stanley Capital Partners targets companies with enterprise values of $200 million to $800 million and EBITDA of $15 million to $60 million. The scope of the figures is all US buyout funds, all size segments combined (PitchBook data as of December 31, 2025 for dry powder and distributions, June 30, 2026 for holding periods). On that scope, more than $600 billion of dry powder, roughly 55% of the total, sits in funds more than two years old—an all-time record—and the backlog of unsold companies exceeds 30,000. Distributions follow: the median 2006-2019 fund had returned 0.45x of paid-in capital (DPI) by year five and more than 1.0x by year eight; 2020 funds stand at 0.27x by year five, and 2021 funds at 0.07x by year four, less than a third of the historical pace. Fund closings have fallen nearly 40% since 2022. On exits, MSCI Private Assets data cited in the note show the model flipping: revenue and margin growth explain roughly 80% of exit MOIC for 2022-2025 realizations, versus 55% for 2015-2019, while the contribution of multiple expansion fell from 0.95x to 0.49x. Morgan Stanley draws a rule of thumb: at constant leverage, a deal now needs to “deliver roughly double the earnings growth to generate the same MOIC” as before the rate increases.
Cross-checking against Bain & Company (Midyear report, June 2026, global scope) confirmed the order of magnitude: about 33,000 unsold companies, distributions relative to portfolio value at a four-year low, and a formula—“12 is the new 5”—meaning deals now require 10% to 12% annual EBITDA growth to deliver what 5% used to.
In this market, the fundraising recovery accrues only to managers seen as experts. According to PitchBook (September 23), tech-focused private equity funds raised $31.3 billion in Q3 across 17 vehicles, after a first half of $24.7 billion globally, down 70% year over year; two houses account for more than 80% of the quarter—Francisco Partners (Fund VIII at $16.4 billion and Agility IV at $4.6 billion, both closed above target within eight months) and PSG Equity (Fund III at €4.4 billion, above its hard cap and up from €2.6 billion for its predecessor). Gabrielle Joseph of Rede Partners, the London placement agent: “GPs viewed as genuine experts are advantaged. Meanwhile, those without developed expertise face tougher conditions.”
The large platforms are adjusting their offering rather than their ambition: Blackstone is targeting $8.5 billion for its next energy transition fund, versus $5.58 billion for the prior vintage closed in February 2025 (PEI, September 23); Carlyle, through Steve Wise, co-head of Americas private equity, says it is leaning into carve-outs—buying divisions separated from large corporates—in industrials, defense and healthcare (PEI, September 24); and Ardian, the Paris-based manager with $200 billion in assets, is launching a small-cap range built on its Expansion team, against the tide of ever-larger funds (CFNEWS, September 21).
Sources: Morgan Stanley Capital Partners (“A New Era for Middle Market Private Equity,” September 2026), Bain & Company (Private Equity Midyear Report 2026), PitchBook (tech PE fundraising), PEI (Blackstone), PEI (Carlyle), CFNEWS (Ardian).
📖 Going further: “26. Private Equity: An Asset Class Come of Age”
3. Elizabeth Warren refiles the Stop Wall Street Looting Act: a fourth attempt in seven years, and a debate that has gone public
On September 24, Elizabeth Warren, Democratic senator from Massachusetts and ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, reintroduced the Stop Wall Street Looting Act with six senators (including Bernie Sanders, Tammy Baldwin and Ed Markey) and nine House members (including Pramila Jayapal, Mark Pocan and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez). First introduced in 2019, the bill is now on its fourth filing. The mechanics, as laid out in the committee’s release: private equity firms and their general partners become liable for the debts, legal judgments and pension obligations of portfolio companies, with limited partners exempt; cash extraction is restricted—dividends, sale-leasebacks and monitoring fees—and the transactions at Steward Health Care, the hospital operator that went bankrupt in 2024, could be reviewed as fraudulent transfers; the bankruptcy priority for unpaid wages doubles from $10,000 to $20,000 per worker; disclosure of fees, returns and loan terms becomes mandatory; and entities that sold their real estate to REITs lose access to federal healthcare program payments. Forbes (September 24) adds two provisions: carried interest taxed at ordinary income rates, and risk-retention requirements for issuers of corporate-debt securitizations. The column notes that 19 of the 35 largest US bankruptcies of 2025 (liabilities above $1 billion), or 54%, involved companies owned by funds.
The senator points to a precedent: “Congress proved with our bipartisan housing law that we can stop private equity from rolling through industry after industry,” a reference to the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, enacted in summer 2026, which restricts purchases of single-family homes by large institutional investors. The release puts private equity assets at more than $9 trillion in 2025, up from $4.5 trillion in 2020. American Banker (September 24) rates the bill’s chances in the Republican-controlled 119th Congress as close to nil, none of the earlier versions having made it out of committee. The debate itself has changed register. The Washington Post answered her on September 22 by pointing out that a quality control already exists: the customer.
Sources: US Senate Banking Committee (release), Forbes, American Banker, The Washington Post.
📖 Going further: “8. US Private Equity Under Fire”
4. Following up on last week — Evergreen: US private equity perpetual funds have doubled in eighteen months, and Blackstone opens BXPM to non-US individuals
Last week’s edition noted the near-doubling in five quarters of US private equity evergreen funds, from $51.3 billion at end-2024 to $99.3 billion at March 31, 2026. The Q3 2026 US Evergreen Fund Landscape, published on September 25 by PitchBook and Morningstar (data aggregated as of September 15, regulatory filings dated no later than June 30), confirms the trajectory of these perpetual funds open to periodic subscriptions and redemptions: private equity evergreen funds doubled their NAV between end-2024 and the June 2026 reading, and venture capital evergreen funds, about $3 billion in 2024, now exceed $20 billion, driven in the authors’ words by “solid inflows and market appreciation in AI and technology exposures.” The report, whose “Spotlight” section is devoted to the rise of evergreen PE funds, notes that PE and VC funds “have posted eye-watering returns over the past year,” and that these results are not limited to small vehicles. PitchBook now tracks funds before launch: more than 100 evergreen vehicles were in the pipeline in mid-September across all strategies, private equity among them alongside private multi-asset funds, which often invest by holding other evergreen funds.
Supply follows demand. On September 25, Private Equity Wire reported Blackstone’s launch of the Blackstone Private Markets Fund (BXPM), its first perpetual multi-asset fund for individual investors outside the United States: a $10,000 minimum, quarterly redemptions capped at 3% of NAV and not guaranteed, and about half the portfolio in private equity—including stakes in SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI. Blackstone’s wealth business managed about $324 billion at June 30, a quarter of the firm’s assets. Cross-checking with Preqin, which counts launches worldwide rather than US net assets, points the same way: 32 private equity evergreen funds were launched in 2025, the second most-launched strategy of the year.
Sources: PitchBook / Morningstar (Q3 2026 US Evergreen Fund Landscape), Private Equity Wire (BXPM), Preqin.
📖 Going further: “12. Private Equity (really) opens up to individual investors” (in French)
5. Europe: Danish pension fund PKA commits DKK 6.4 billion to unlisted European companies, while private equity loses Swiss auctions
On September 23, PKA, Denmark’s largest pension fund for healthcare and social-sector workers (DKK 500 billion in assets, more than 370,000 members), announced DKK 6.4 billion (about $980 million) of commitments to unlisted European companies, including DKK 1.5 billion in venture capital, through IIP (Institutional Investment Partners), the platform it co-owns with Lars Larsen Group, the owner of retailer JYSK. IIP has raised nearly DKK 21 billion in 2026 across three funds and manages DKK 110 billion. Jon Johnsen, PKA’s CEO: “We do this primarily because we believe it can generate strong returns and support high pensions for our members, but it’s also important to strengthen Europe.” The release leans on the Draghi report: the European Union attracts 5% of global venture capital, against 52% for the United States. A pension fund justifying an allocation by sovereignty is not something one read in a press release five years ago.
On the deal front, the picture is less flattering. Bloomberg (September 22) reports remarks by Fedor Schulten, head of Goldman Sachs’ investment bank in Zurich, at the EuropaInstitut: in Switzerland, private equity funds are increasingly retreating from company sale auctions because they cannot compete with strategic buyers—private equity’s share of Swiss M&A has fallen below 20%, the second-lowest level in eight years, and the dropout rate during sale processes reaches half of the sponsors involved. The reasons given: costlier leverage, corporates paying in cash or stock and extracting synergies, and portfolios bought at the 2021 peak that funds are reluctant to sell at a loss.
Sources: PKA (release, via Ritzau), Bloomberg.
📖 Going further: “28. Transaction Value 2025: what the new Invest Europe report really shows”
6. PitchBook’s Sustainable Investment Survey: 54% of respondents no longer have a formal defense exclusion, and only 4% have dropped ESG
PitchBook’s seventh Sustainable Investment Survey, published September 23 (272 respondents between June 25 and July 26, 169 complete questionnaires; 59% in the US, 21% in Europe; 29% fund managers, only 8% asset owners), measures a sector that bends without breaking. On defense, asked how their approach has changed since February 2022, 54% of the 98 respondents for whom the question is relevant say they have no formal exclusion and evaluate case by case, 32% exclude controversial weapons as they did before 2022, and a minority has relaxed or eliminated former exclusions—two of them citing “regulations” and “European guidance,” a reference to the European Commission’s 2025 notice clarifying that the EU’s sustainable finance framework is sector-neutral and does not restrict investment in defense. On messaging, 46% have not changed their ESG communication, 13% have increased it, 8% have reduced it, and the rest have repositioned it; 4% of respondents say they have stopped incorporating ESG factors (5% in 2025). On impact, 76% of the 85 impact investors expect market-rate returns, and the share willing to accept below-market returns in exchange for impact fell from 29% to 15% in a single year—while “the perception that impact investing equates to concessionary returns” remains the top obstacle cited, by 46% of respondents against 41% in 2025.
Two other datasets take the reading beyond PitchBook alone. On European portfolios, Invest Europe’s ESG KPI Report 2026 (fourth edition, 2024 data, 1,206 firms, 4,039 funds and 8,756 portfolio companies, 27% more companies than the previous edition, which covered 2023 data) finds that 21% of portfolio companies have committed to net zero and that women hold 37% of full-time-equivalent roles—a stable figure, with the association itself cautioning that the sample cannot be taken as representative of the whole industry. On defense, the shift PitchBook measures has a quantified precedent among Nordic pension funds: according to European Pensions, Denmark’s PFA raised its defense holdings from DKK 793 million in February 2022 to DKK 7.7 billion in October 2025 after revising its exclusion policy (controversial weapons remain excluded), and Danish pension funds as a whole doubled their sector holdings between 2023 and 2024, from about DKK 9 billion to nearly DKK 19 billion. In France, France Invest, the French private equity association, held its fifteenth annual Sustainability conference with PwC in Paris on September 22 under the title “The hour of choices?”—water stress, the physical limits of AI, sustainability and European economic security—without releasing new statistics on management firms.
Sources: PitchBook (2026 Sustainable Investment Survey), Invest Europe (ESG KPI Report 2026), European Pensions (PFA), France Invest (Sustainability conference 2026).
📖 Going further: “6. How Private Equity can help Europe reach a 5% of GDP defense effort” (in French)
References of the week
Antler — European Founder Report 2026 (Christoph Klink) (August 2026)
PitchBook — European VC funding narrows around a handful of AI bets (2026)
Morgan Stanley Capital Partners — A New Era for Middle Market Private Equity: Five Imperatives (September 2026)
Bain & Company — Private Equity Midyear Report 2026 (June 2026)
PitchBook — Tech PE’s fundraising recovery is leaving tourists behind (September 23)
PEI — Blackstone targets $8.5bn for latest energy transition fund (September 23)
PEI — Carlyle leans into carve-outs as dealmaking gets more competitive (September 24)
CFNEWS — Ardian lance une nouvelle gamme de fonds (September 21)
US Senate Banking Committee — Reintroduction of the Stop Wall Street Looting Act (September 24)
Forbes — Warren Revives Stop Wall Street Looting Act (Mayra Rodríguez Valladares) (September 24)
American Banker — Democrats reintroduce bill to curb private equity (September 24)
The Washington Post — Elizabeth Warren’s crusade against private equity ignores the customer (September 22)
PitchBook / Morningstar — Q3 2026 US Evergreen Fund Landscape (September 25)
Private Equity Wire — Blackstone launches first multi-asset private markets fund for non-US investors (September 25)
Preqin — Evergreen funds set off at record-breaking pace in 2026 (2026)
PKA — PKA skyder over 6 milliarder kroner i europæiske vækstvirksomheder (release) (September 23)
Bloomberg — Goldman Sachs banker says private equity struggles to compete in Swiss deals (September 22)
PitchBook — 2026 Sustainable Investment Survey (September 23)
Invest Europe — ESG KPI Report 2026 (2026, 2024 data)
European Pensions — PFA boosts defence investments tenfold after exclusion policy revised (2025)
France Invest — 15th annual Sustainability conference, with PwC (September 22)
Gilles Mougenot — Senior Advisor at Argos Fund, former Chairman of France Invest, author of “Tout savoir sur le Capital Investissement.”
