Week of July 6–12, 2026 · by Gilles Mougenot, Senior Advisor at Argos Fund, former Chairman of France Invest, author of the leading French private equity reference book · peresearch.eu
Signal of the Week — Retail PE in Question
The debate over opening private equity to retail investors turned quantitative this week. A Bloomberg Opinion column published July 7, 2026 argues that private equity remains “too risky for mainstream investors.” The case rests on evergreen fund performance: the 15 largest evergreen private equity funds aimed at retail investors posted a median return of 11.97% in 2025, versus 17.43% for the S&P 500. Over 2023–2025, the median annualized return was 11.31% — roughly half the index’s 22.48%. Expense ratios of 3% to 5% per year weigh on the gap.
The push continues nonetheless. Following the August 2025 executive order and the Department of Labor’s proposed rule, private credit is now heading into America’s $14 trillion 401(k) market (The Motley Fool, July 10, 2026).
Sources: Bloomberg Opinion (July 7, 2026), Advisor Perspectives (July 7, 2026), The Motley Fool (July 10, 2026)
Global Market and Europe — Slower Exits, Bigger Checks
S&P Global Market Intelligence released its first-half exit tally this week: 1,504 exits announced globally between January 1 and June 30, 2026, down 6% from 1,601 in H1 2025 — while aggregate exit value rose, driven by a handful of exceptionally large transactions. In its midyear outlook published in July, PwC describes an exit market that is “improving but not fully reopened”: selective IPO windows, cautious strategic buyers, and tailored processes reserved for premium assets.
Europe illustrates the same pattern — fewer but larger deals. PitchBook data reported July 8 by Tech Funding News puts European deal value at €319.7 billion (about $375 billion) in H1 2026, up 8.6% from €294.4 billion a year earlier, on a deal count down 4.5% (4,202 versus 4,399): the average deal size rose from €66.9 million to €76.1 million in a year. AI is driving the European momentum, with €21.3 billion invested in the theme through May 2026, per PitchBook’s EMEA midyear update. The week’s key indicators:
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Global exits, H1 2026: 1,504 (-6% vs. H1 2025) — S&P Global MI (July 2026)
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European deal value, H1 2026: €319.7 billion (+8.6% vs. H1 2025) — PitchBook (July 8, 2026)
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European deal volume, H1 2026: 4,202 deals (-4.5% vs. H1 2025) — PitchBook (July 8, 2026)
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Average European deal size: €76.1 million, up from €66.9 million in H1 2025 — PitchBook (July 8, 2026)
Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence (July 2026), PwC US Deals Midyear Outlook (July 2026), Tech Funding News / PitchBook (July 8, 2026), PitchBook EMEA Midyear Update (July 2026)
Secondaries — Continuation Vehicles Under the SEC’s Eye
Two weeks after Bloomberg revealed (June 24, 2026) that the SEC’s enforcement division is investigating continuation vehicles, analysis of the market consequences multiplied this week. The probe centers on conflicts of interest, how transferred assets are valued, and whether investor disclosures are sufficient and consistent. The emerging consensus: regulatory pressure will force GPs to “show their work” on valuations without breaking the market’s momentum. New data point this week: capital raised by continuation funds hit $62.67 billion in 2025, the highest total since at least 2017, and the global backlog of unsold portfolio companies is estimated at more than 30,000 — the liquidity valve remains indispensable.
Sources: Bloomberg (June 24, 2026), Yahoo Finance / PitchBook (July 2026), The Middle Market (July 2026)
Public-to-Private — easyJet: When Private Credit Crashes the Buyout Party
The battle for easyJet delivered a lesson this week that few commentators picked up on: this is not a classic bidding war between two private equity funds. It is the head-on collision of two radically different investment philosophies.
On one side, Apollo — a veteran buyout player, with a logic of control, operational transformation and value creation over five to seven years. On the other, Castlelake — an asset-based private credit specialist, with a wealth-preservation logic, returns protected by physical assets, and a fundamentally different horizon and structure.
That easyJet’s board ultimately preferred Apollo at £7.15 per share over Castlelake’s £6.90 is not just a matter of price. It is a choice of model. And that choice says something important about what companies now expect from their financial shareholders — and about the increasingly porous boundary between PE and private credit in large transactions.
Three questions this theme raises for the industry.
1. Is the line between PE and private credit still legible? Castlelake defines itself as an asset-based private credit manager — not a PE fund. Yet it is attempting to acquire control of a £5.2 billion listed airline. When private credit goes after buyouts of this size, the boundaries the industry had carefully drawn between its businesses no longer mean much.
2. Governance structure as a competitive argument. Castlelake proposed taking 49% of the capital, with the majority held by European nationals to satisfy EU rules. Apollo commits to taking “all necessary measures” to comply — without specifying how. European regulation on airline ownership is thus becoming a differentiating factor between acquirers, not merely a legal constraint.
3. An 81% premium: market signal or anomaly? Apollo’s offer represents an 81% premium over the May 28 share price. Beauchamp Research immediately warned against the risk of excessive leverage in the structure. The question is not just “who wins the auction” — it is “at what cost of debt, and at whose expense down the line?”
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Offer per share — Apollo: £7.15 · Castlelake: £6.90
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Total valuation — Apollo: £5.7bn ($7.7bn) · Castlelake: £5.2bn ($7.0bn)
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Total AUM — Apollo: >$1 trillion · Castlelake: ~$38bn
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Model — Apollo: PE / buyout · Castlelake: asset-based private credit
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Aviation expertise — Apollo: equity (Aeromexico, Sun Country) · Castlelake: aircraft leasing & asset financing
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Firm offer deadline — Apollo: August 7, 5:00 pm GMT · Castlelake: August 3
Sources: CBS News (July 11, 2026), Business Travel News, Gulf News (July 10, 2026)
Europe — A Decade of Deals: Invest Europe Tallies €260.9 Billion in 2025 Transaction Value, with France Leading Buyouts
Invest Europe (the European private equity association) released its Transaction Value Analysis 2016–2025 on July 9, tracking ten years of private capital transaction value across Europe. Total transaction value reached €260.9 billion in 2025, flat year-over-year and slightly above trend (+3% versus the five-year average), across 8,681 transactions. The split: buyouts 72%, venture 14%, growth 13%.
A notable shift in regional leadership: France & Benelux once again took the top spot in European buyouts (as in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2022 and 2023) at €60.0 billion (+21% year-over-year), while the UK & Ireland declined 21%. Mega deals accounted for 49% of total buyout value (€189.0 billion, down 4%).
On the sector front, healthcare and biotech led the way at €51.9 billion (+43%), reaching 20% of total transaction value. Consumer goods and services, by contrast, fell sharply (–44%) to just 11% of the total. Venture capital hit €35.3 billion (+11%), its second-highest level on record, and growth capital returned to expansion at €33.4 billion (+12%) after three consecutive annual declines — a recovery driven entirely by larger deals (transactions above €30 million: 77% of total value).
A full analysis of this report is forthcoming on peresearch.eu.
Sources: Invest Europe, Transaction Value Analysis 2016–2025 (July 9, 2026)
Sources used this week: Bloomberg Opinion · Advisor Perspectives · The Motley Fool · S&P Global Market Intelligence · PwC · Tech Funding News · PitchBook · Bloomberg · Yahoo Finance · The Middle Market · CBS News · Business Travel News · Gulf News — Invest Europe